17th March 2003

In his letter published in SR 281 Chris Newman has hit the nail firmly on the head. Despite it being said many times before that steam is living on borrowed time it has continued to thrive. But I believe that now continued steam operations are facing a series of major threats, much more serious than those of the past. Perhaps principle amongst these is the age profile of the average railway's or loco group's volunteers. Yes there are young members coming through (I can count myself in this group being 29.) However the volume of volunteers required to keep just one loco operating, let alone a whole preserved railway, are not appearing as they have done in the past. Over regulation is also another major threat - in the short term this is likely to have more of an impact on mainline operations but is already creeping on to preserved lines. Mainline steam, whilst having to content with both threats listed above, is also likely to severely limited by network capacity issues - be they caused by more trains, faster trains or both. Of course there is also the age of the locos to be taken in to account. I predict within 10 to 15 years 99% of the current mainline fleet will no longer be operating anywhere other than on preserved lines. Those few locos that are still able to operate will have to jump through even more hoops, will be forced off the 'exciting' routes and will probably be subject to even worse paths than steam can suffer now.

I do not have a panacea for these major, but slow creeping, ills however there are already ways to lessen the impact and enable those of us who live and breath steam to continue to do so until we are physically unable to continue ourselves. Firstly we have to face facts. The number of operating lines and locos will fall whilst mainline steam will all but die out as we know it. The decline will, I suspect, be slow and almost unnoticed until it is too late. I strongly believe that if steam is to survive in any significant form we must act now. One way of doing this is to build new locos which are more efficient, reliable and powerful than the current fleet. Lets face it a new and modern preserved line loco can be had for roughly the same price as restoring the worst Barry wreck. Mainline locos are different and it might be taken that I see NO serious future for mainline steam. However this would be incorrect. David Wardale, following in the footsteps of Andre Chapelon and Dante Porta, is currently undertaking the design calculations for a new mainline loco, the 5AT, that will meet all the requirements of the modern mainline railway (something, sadly, the A1 will not) whilst retaining the classic steam locomotive form and sound. The 5AT is a commercially viable locomotive - a Business Plan has been developed and proves this. For the enthusiast it also offers a great deal. 2500 drawbar horsepower (continuous) and a maximum service speed of 112mph is surely enough to excite even the most jaded gricer. I don't think I need to spell out the effect on the general public of regularly seeing a 5AT racing through the centre roads at Crewe (or anywhere else) around about the 110mph mark. Despite all the competing activities for today and tomorrow's youngsters is it too much to expect we might be able to foster a new generation of steam enthusiasts and thus keep steam running past the 250th anniversary of the Rainhill trails ?

Yours sincerely,

Martyn Bane