The 5AT project is a genuine business opportunity that is expected to attract the interest of investors in the rail transportation sector who are seeking a commercial return on their investments. In order to demonstrate the viability of the project, a comprehensive Business Plan has been developed for the 5AT project.

The Business Plan contains detailed cost and income analyses which have been prepared in spreadsheet format that can readily be adjusted to reflect any given set of assumptions. Based on the assumptions presented in the current draft of the Plan which include a cost of £1.5 million for the locomotive's construction, operation of 156 train per year, and sponsorship funding covering the estimated £2.0 million prototype development costs, the analysis shows a pre-tax profit on turnover of running 5AT-hauled trains ranging up to over 18% (depending on the type of train operation).

Since the 5AT Business Plan contains commercially sensitive (or potentially sensitive) information, it will not be widely distributed, nor will it be displayed in full on this website as originally intended.  However, the paper titled "Making the commercial case for the 5AT" presented by Alan Fozard at the 1st International Steam and Tourist Train Congress, Brienz, Switzerland, Oct 6th 2003 outlines the main points that are presented in the Business Plan. In addition, the Executive Summary, Preface and Table of Contents for the Plan are reproduced below.

Copies of the Business Plan will be made available to rail industry organizations or other individuals or organizations that have a genuine interest in the funding of, or advancement of, the 5AT Project.  Please contact webmaster@5at.co.uk. for further information.

The business plan presents the commercial and technical case for the development and building of an advanced technology steam locomotive for hauling premium, charter and rail-cruise trains on the modernised main line network. The proposed locomotive, designated the Class 5AT, will have the speed, range and performance to keep up with modern rail traffic flows. It will combine these attributes with very high reliability, low maintenance costs, economical operation and low pollution.

Performance

The locomotive will have the same profile and wide route availability as the ex-BR Class 5MT 4-6-0, but will be an entirely new design which will incorporate the considerable advances made in steam locomotive technology since the 1950s (by Andre Chapelon, Livio Dante Porta, David Wardale and others). It will be light oil (diesel) fired and produce 2,550 drawbar horsepower at 81mph (130/km/hr) on level track. It is being designed for a top speed of 125 mph (200 km/hr) and for continuous operational speeds of up to 113mph (180 km/hr). Overall the thermal efficiency of the Class 5AT will be approximately 100% greater than the 5MT.

Costs and timescale

In rounded figures the estimated costs of developing and building the initial locomotive are anticipated to be approximately £3.5 million at current (2003) levels of which some £2.0 million is the “Development Overhead”; i.e. the one-off design and prototyping costs. Subsequent examples of the class are anticipated to cost around £1.5 million at current price levels. The timescale to design, build, test and gain vehicle acceptance of the first locomotive of the class is expected to take 7 ½ years from the start of the project (assuming full finance is in place).

Design Engineering

The Class 5AT project design team will include the world’s foremost experienced steam locomotive design engineers including David Wardale who originally conceived the project.

Potential Returns

Section 9 of the business plan attempts to quantify possible returns on a “hired-out” basis and section 10 possible “ball-park” pre-tax profits of 5AT hauled trains. Potential returns will depend on whether the Development Overhead has to be amortised on the initial locomotive or whether it can be financed by other means (e.g. sponsorship). The plan illustrates both possibilities. Assuming that the Development Overhead can be defrayed the indications are that attractive profits could be achieved on 5AT hauled trains with a 60% loading factor on the basis that, on average, the locomotive hauls three revenue generating trains a week.

Financing

The 5AT is expected to be of interest to train operators, rail charter operators and others with financing most likely obtained under a negotiated commercial leasing arrangement. It is recommended that finance for the Development Overhead be obtained through sponsorship or by other means.

Alan Fozard
David Wardale
August, 2003.

Steam locomotives put smiles on people's faces. People of all ages and of both sexes continue their ongoing fascination with this most endearing of man's creations. Many have tried to explain this "love affair" with the steam locomotive. The undeniable fact is that it has driven the steam railway preservation movement from tiny beginnings 50 years ago to an industry of heritage lines which, it is estimated, carried some 9 million people in the year 2000 in the UK alone. Significantly the industry is continuing to grow at a healthy pace.

For an increasing number the ultimate pleasure is to travel behind a steam locomotive operating at speed on the main line. Even for non-enthusiasts the presence of a steam locomotive on a charter train is "the icing on the cake" which can lift a good day out into something very special. Yet for how much longer can trains hauled by steam locomotives designed and built over 45 years ago continue to run on a rapidly modernising railway network, with its increased emphasis on safety, reliability, higher speeds and greater line occupancy? Certainly there are going to have to be many compromises along the way. We feel strongly that the time has now come for a "new generation" steam locomotive with the characteristics and performance required to ensure that steam trains continue to operate on the modernized rail network well into the 21st Century.

How can one justify building an advanced technology steam locomotive? There is the obvious reason of keeping steam operational on the main line for future generations to enjoy. Another reason is to demonstrate the full capability and reliability of a modern steam locomotive incorporating the proven technical advances made in the latter half of the 20th century (which hitherto have only been spasmodically employed on old locomotive designs where their full potential cannot be realised). There is also the realisation that the experienced practitioners of the art of modern steam locomotive design are not getting any younger. If an advanced steam locomotive is ever to be built (and main line steam locomotive development to continue) the locomotive has to be designed and constructed within the next ten years or so.

Then there is that most fundamental requirement - the ability for the locomotive to make profits for its owners and operators. Unless an attractive commercial case can be made for the locomotive it is unlikely ever to be built. However, it is pertinent that a commercial case for modern steam has already been demonstrated by the steam mountain rack locomotives designed and built in Switzerland by SLM/DLM which have proved that modern steam locomotives can be run both profitably and reliably¹.

Traditional locomotive hauled trains will become a rarity in the near future as large numbers of new diesel and electric multiple units are delivered. Multiple units may provide greater operational efficiency but they seldom, if ever, match the glamour - and arguably comfort - of the locomotive hauled train. They certainly don't provide the "pizzazz" of an immaculate steam locomotive hauling a quality train of matching rolling stock. The steam locomotive hauled train may be a niche market but with imaginative marketing and careful attention to fulfilling customer preferences we believe that it is one that can be further exploited.

We therefore present this business plan as the initial step in what we hope will become a practical and exciting project to build an advanced technology, high-speed steam locomotive for hauling main line railtour and tourist trains in the 21st Century.

Alan Fozard
David Wardale

Wardale Engineering and Associates, August, 2003.

1. R. Waller, Modern Steam - An economic and environmental alternative to diesel traction.
(Lecture presented to the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Railway Division, Feb 3 & 4, 2003).

1 Introduction.
2 The UK Steam Railtour Market: current trends and longer term requirements .
          2.1 Market segmentation
          2.2 Post privatization trends
          2.3 The longer term requirements (2010+)
3 Proposed modern high performance steam locomotive.
          3.1 General Characteristics
          3.2 The 5AT Advanced Technology, high performance 4-6-0 steam locomotive
          3.3 Benefits to Charter Train Operators offered by the 5AT 4-6-0.
4 Acceptability to Rail Industry.
5 Engineering Stages to design, develop, build and gain acceptance.
          5.1 Safety Case
          5.2 Fundamental Design Calculations
          5.3 Production of Engineering Drawings
          5.4 Manufacturing and Assembly Phase
          5.5 Test and Acceptance Phase
          5.6 Liaison with Railway Safety and Certification Authorities
          5.7 Quality management
          5.8 Project Administration
6 The Engineering Team
7. Financing the Project
          7.1 Prospective Customers
          7.2 Estimating the Market for the 5AT
          7.3 The Case for Sponsorship
8. Projection of Engineering and Building Costs
          8.1 Projected Engineering and Building Costs
          8.2 Breakdown of Projected Engineering Overheads
9. Illustration of Potential Income & Expenditure
          9.1 Summary Financial Projections from Locomotive Acceptance
          9.2 Potential Income & Expenditure
          9.3 Cash Flow
          9.4 Depreciation
          9.5 Computation of Overhaul Schedule
10 "Ball Park" illustrations of profit potential of 5AT hauled trains
          10.1 New Opportunities
          10.2 Hotel Supplies and Other Considerations
          10.3 Premium Scheduled Train / Luxury Dining Train
          10.4 1st Class Dining/Standard Class Train
          10.5 Standard Class Train
11 Supporting organisation
          11.1 Friends of the 5AT
          11.2 Design, Build and Acceptance Phases
          11.3 Operation & Maintenance of the 5AT
          11.4 Commercial Aspects
12 Summary and Conclusions

Appendices
          A The Class 5AT 4-6-0 - Engineering Specification
          B Engineering Philosophy behind the Locomotive's Specification
          C Performance Calculations
          D Fundamental Design Calculations
          E Résumés of the Engineering Team.